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euronews
IEA and OPEC split on oil demand estimates as Hormuz closure drags
The International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC are at odds regarding oil demand estimates for 2026, reflecting differing perspectives on market dynamics amid geopolitical tensions. The IEA anticipates a reduction of 1.6 million barrels per day due to the sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz and high fuel prices, marking its first decline prediction since the pandemic struck. Conversely, OPEC expects a growth in oil demand, although it has lowered its estimates for the fourth consecutive month, highlighting a divergence in outlooks between the two organizations.
MonitorConfidence: MediumShort term horizonInfrastructure risk: High
Published 12 Aug 2026, 15:06 UTC2 min read
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Summary
TL;DR
- IEA expects oil demand to fall by 1.6 mb/d in 2026.
- OPEC maintains a growth forecast but has decreased its estimates.
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to impact oil consumption.
- Global oil production rose to 101.5 mb/d in July but below year-ago levels.
- The IEA cuts supply forecasts, anticipating a decline of 4.3 mb/d this year.
Interesting facts
- The IEA's downgrade is the first since COVID-19 dramatically affected the global economy.
- OPEC's estimates have been trimmed consistently, revealing ongoing tensions in demand forecasting.
- Significant regional disruptions include attacks on tankers and infrastructure.