Newsbite analysis · AI, Hardware
DigiTimes
TGV still faces technical barriers; CoPoS commercialization not likely until 2030
The market for advanced packaging continues to grow driven by AI chip demand, but technical barriers are hindering progress. The CoPoS technology, which relies on glass interposers instead of traditional materials, is unlikely to see commercialization before 2030 due to the immaturity of through-glass via technology. This could delay advancements in AI chip packaging solutions that rely on this technology. The industry is working toward developing suitable alternatives to mitigate rising area waste caused by higher packaging area requirements.
MonitorConfidence: MediumLong term horizonExecution risk: HighSupply chain risk: High
Published 24 Jul 2026, 04:20 UTC2 min read
Lead image — DigiTimes
Brief
NewsBite reading:TGV technology hurdles delay CoPoS commercialization until 2030
TL;DR
- Advanced packaging market expanding due to AI chip demand.
- Glass substrates are being explored to replace ABF substrates.
- Commercialization of CoPoS technology is unlikely until 2030.
- Thermal expansion mismatches are causing increased warpage issues.
- OSATs and panel makers have begun mass-producing FOPLP technologies.
Interesting facts
- Ibiden believes technology barriers for through-glass vias will only be resolved by 2030.
- The shift to glass materials is driven by their lower cost and better thermal properties.
What changed
CoPoS technology's projected commercialization is significantly delayed until 2030 due to ongoing technical challenges.
Unchanged: The demand for AI chip packaging solutions continues without any interruption.
What we still don't know
- Details on specific technological developments towards resolving the stated issues.
- Implications for specific companies beyond those mentioned.
Decision signal
Decision brief
Actionable takeaways
- Monitor the progress of through-glass via technology developments.
- Evaluate alternative materials for advanced packaging solutions.
- Stay informed about advancements from major foundries like TSMC and Intel.
- Prepare for potential supply chain implications due to technology delays.
Decision signal
Monitor
Technical significance
Meaningful
Competitive impact
Threatens incumbents
Source reliability
High
Impact certainty
Medium
Novelty
Medium
Execution risk
High
Strategic weight
Medium
Trend: Early signal
- Growth of AI applications and the corresponding need for advanced semiconductor packaging.
- Shift towards lower-cost packaging materials in semiconductor manufacturing.
Personalized guidance
Audience lens
Board
- Review risk management strategies in the semiconductor sector.
- Consider long-term planning for AI and advanced packaging investments.
CTO
- Investigate alternative materials and technologies for packaging.
- Focus on R&D for through-glass via solutions.
Startup founders
- Explore market opportunities in developing reliable packaging technologies.
- Identify potential partnerships with foundries for tech advancements.
Investors
- Assess investment strategies in the semiconductor and packaging technology space.
- Monitor advancements from key players like TSMC and Intel for opportunities.
Engineering
- Align engineering teams toward solving packaging technology challenges.
- Prioritize scalable solutions for long-term production needs.
Sentiment signal
Sentiment
Overall: NegativeMood: Cautious
The news conveys a cautious sentiment towards the future of advanced packaging technologies given the significant delays expected in commercialization timelines.
Drivers
Technical barriers faced by CoPoS technologyProlonged timelines affecting market development
By category
hardwareNegative
The delay in advancing packaging technologies may hinder market progress, affecting hardware innovation.
AINegative
Slowed advancement in packaging technology could impact the deployment of efficient AI solutions.
semiconductorsNegative
Delays in CoPoS commercialization signify ongoing challenges in semiconductor advancements.
Notable entities
IbidencompanyNegative
Ibiden’s expectation of delays indicates challenges in meeting market demand for advanced packaging.
TSMCcompanyNeutral
TSMC's roadmap remains critical but uncertain due to technological barriers.
IntelcompanyNeutral
Intel's involvement reflects the larger industry's efforts to innovate amidst challenges.
SamsungcompanyNeutral
Samsung continues to adapt but faces setbacks in CoPoS implementation.
RapiduscompanyNeutral
Focus on advanced packaging is essential, despite the commercialization delays.
PSMCcompanyNeutral
State of PSMC's CoPoS developments is unclear due to technological challenges.
Market signal
Impact & reach
Delay in CoPoS technology's commercialization timeline due to technical barriers.
This delay reflects broader challenges within the semiconductor industry, particularly regarding the transition to new materials and technologies essential for AI advancements. The need for innovative solutions remains critical as demand for AI chips continues to climb.
enterprisesNegative
Enterprises relying on AI chip solutions may face extended timelines in obtaining advanced packaging technologies.
Geographic focus
GlobalNegative
The delay in commercialization is expected to impact global semiconductor markets.
Likely losers
Companies involved in traditional packaging methods
Neutral / unclear
Foundries working on CoPoS technology
Ripple effects
AI chip manufacturersConfidence: Medium
Might need to seek alternative packaging technologies or solutions.
Risk signal
Risk radar
Cybersecurity riskLow
No direct cybersecurity threats highlighted in the development process.
Data governance riskLow
Data governance remains stable, not impacting current developments.
Reputational riskMedium
Firms may face reputational challenges if advancements continue to stall.
Execution riskHigh
Challenges in advancing CoPoS are significant and may affect timelines.
Infrastructure riskMedium
Infrastructure for advanced technology adoption is still evolving.
Geopolitical riskMedium
Global reliance on semiconductor supply chains poses geopolitical concerns.
Regulatory riskLow
Current regulations do not directly impact the advancement of packaging technologies.
Supply chain riskHigh
Delays could significantly disrupt existing global supply chains.
Talent displacement riskLow
Current development efforts do not indicate significant layoffs.
AI liability riskLow
The risk remains low as this development doesn't directly involve AI systems.